What’s In Store For Markets In 2026?

Here is the latest in SA trending, ahead of the first trading session of 2026:

For the record: In a year rife with tariff announcements, many never materialized, including the latest ones on Italian pasta and upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets.

Next innovation? Apple (AAPL) is cutting production of its Vision Pro headset, but has teased ‘big plans’ for a Fitness+ subscription in 2026.

‘Locked and loaded’: Following deadly protests, President Trump threatens an intervention in Iran, which is reportedly looking to raise cash through crypto transactions.

Investors are taking out their crystal balls to set up their portfolios for the coming year, but there is much uncertainty out there, especially given how wrong many Wall Street economists and analysts got the markets in 2025. Remember predictions for an AI bubble, inflationary tariffs and stagflation, and a dominant dollar?

Today’s WSB newsletter will be the last year-end special edition, exploring Seeking Alpha Sentiment and commentary from SA Investing Group Leaders and analysts. Join the discussion in the comments section with your top stock picks of the year or investments that gave you the best returns!

What kind of year for the stock market?
The biggest cohort of respondents (62%) to Wall Street Breakfast’s Sentiment Survey for 2026 sees a gain of 10% for the S&P 500 (SP500). The average of all responses also points to an 8.5% return, suggesting another bullish year for markets. Stocks are the most favored asset class for 2026, according to the survey, with nearly four-fifths of subscribers putting most of their investing capital in equities, compared to bonds, commodities, cash, and crypto.

“With earnings growth broadening, the Fed easing, and plenty of value left in the market minus the AI-related names, I think this bull market has a long runway,” said Lawrence Fuller, Investing Group Leader of The Portfolio Architect. “Expect to see additional fiscal stimulus [besides the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act] in the form of lower tariffs due to a combination of court rulings and actions by the administration to lower prices, as the affordability issue is now center stage in advance of the midterms… A purported Achilles heel of this year’s expansion is that the AI infrastructure buildout has been responsible for all of our economic growth, but that is a misconception.”

Which stock sectors?
The clear winner per SA Sentiment is Technology, with trends like artificial intelligence driving the gains. Some other sectors that received positive recommendations included energy, with the latter in high demand due to needs like powering the AI revolution. Subscribers specifically flagged power infrastructure and the nuclear renaissance, though other hot investment sectors included defense and space, drug development, robots, and rare earths. See the worst sectors here

“As expected, all eyes are on the technology sector and given the sector’s record-high weight within the S&P 500, it has become the only game in town for the equity market in 2026,” said SA Analyst Vladimir Dimitrov. “This is especially so considering the undervaluation of the technology sector, with its 35% weight in the S&P 500,” added Manika Premsingh, Investing Group Leader of Green Growth Giants. “The sector is trading at a forward P/E of 27.1x, compared to the 5-year average of 31.1x.”

What about monetary policy?
Two-thirds of Wall Street Breakfast subscribers (66%) see the U.S. central bank taking a slow-easing approach in the coming year. The current Federal Funds Rate sits between 3.50% and 3.75%, and more caution means it will likely stay in a range of between 3% and 4% (suggesting only one or two more rate cuts). However, around another third of respondents predict the Fed will get more aggressive, given economic concerns or a coming shakeup to FOMC leadership.

“While [AI-driven investing and macroeconomic headwinds] are the most important themes investors are debating, for me, there is one factor that sits above all of them: the appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair,” SA Analyst Ragmar Rikberg writes in Why The Fed Is The Whole Story. “Whatever happens in equity markets, the Fed’s implicit backstop, or so-called ‘Fed Put,’ has long been viewed as the ultimate safety net whenever conditions begin to worsen.”

Biggest risks?
The biggest macro worry for the U.S. economy is clearly debt-to-GDP levels, according to the more than 1,100 responses to the WSB survey. And for good reason. Despite pledging to target “wasteful” spending and efforts like DOGE, the national debt topped $38T in 2026 and only continues to climb higher. It might also be a reason government bond yields have stayed elevated, even though short-term rates have come down across the curve. Concerning a “black swan event” in 2026, WSB subscribers see geopolitics and war as the most underappreciated market risk, with specific references made to China and Taiwan.

“Given the substantial deficit, this requires ever more significant interventions by the treasury (printing USD), and caution among investors may grow,” noted SA Analyst Bram de Haas. “The risk has always been that this becomes a vicious cycle, ending the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy through whatever hardship of our own or nature’s making. When the next crisis arrives, we’ll have to see how things play out.”

Check out other results from WSB’s 2026 Outlook survey, including investing styles, diversification, and likely IPOs.

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What else is happening…

Millions face Obamacare premium hikes as subsidies expire.

Uber (UBER) looking to acquire parking app SpotHero.

What to expect for Las Vegas casino trends in 2026.

Neuralink targets high-volume production of brain implants.

Meet Wisk Aero: Boeing’s (BA) under-the-radar eVTOL player.

First Brands creditors hire firm that investigated FTX bankruptcy.

U.S. box office comeback? Here are the biggest movies of 2026.

What’s next for Comcast’s (CMCSA) spinoff Versant (VSNTV)?

Argentina is still $2.4B short on bond payments as deadline looms.

Sign of unity? This country just became the latest to join the eurozone.

Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong +2.8%. China closed. India +0.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.5%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +1.1%. Crude -0.3% to $57.25. Gold +1.6% to $4,409.10. Bitcoin +1.7% to $89,299.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 4.16%.

On The Calendar

See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.